Energy Navigator - a Project Dedicated to the 150th Anniversary of ETH Zurich (11/2003 - 12/2005)

Zielsetzung und Monitoring zur Energieeffizienz und CO2-Minderung der Schweizer Wirtschaft

ETH Research Database Entry

ETH Researchers

• Boulouchos, Konstantinos, Maschinenbau u. Verfahrenstech, Institut für Energietechnik
• Catenazzi, Giacomo Amabile, Maschinenbau u. Verfahrenstech, CEPE, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics
• Jochem, Eberhard, Maschinenbau u. Verfahrenstech, CEPE, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics
• Kartsoni, Aikaterini, Maschinenbau u. Verfahrenstech, Institut für Energietechnik
• Noembrini, Fabrizio, Maschinenbau u. Verfahrenstech, Institut für Energietechnik

Time Frame

11/2003 - 12/2005

Abstract

The “Energy Navigator” is a project dedicated to the 150th anniversary of ETH Zurich, demonstrating both the complexity of energy use in industrial societies and its reduction to concise information for decision making and policy in order to meet the challenges of this century beyond the fossil age.

Contents

English Summary
Background and Introduction
Objectives
Methodology
Results
Publications
Presentations

English Summary

This project aims at developing a computational energy system model which simulates the energy demand for Switzerland for the timeframe between 2010 and 2030 with an option to extend up to 2050. The model will represent energy technology economic scenarios on the basis of a system dynamics approach.

Background and Introduction

In the coming decades, the threat and first consequences of climate change, the mid-depletion point of conventional oil and of the re-concentration of crude oil production in the Near East will compel industrialised as well as developing nations to make much more efficient use of energy. R&D that helps to realise energy efficiency potentials is likely to be regarded as important in scientific, entrepreneurial, and political realms. Demand for highly energy-efficient and for renewable energy technologies will rise steeply, and firms that can provide them are likely to prosper.

Switzerland has been taking up these challenges pro-actively at the federal level during the last few years, by introducing the energy law and the CO2 law, by ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, and by new building codes and policies for the development of renewables at the level of cantons or cities. However, increasing income, mobility, demand for convenience, and related lifestyles tend to compensate the overall efficiency improvements and the shift to natural gas or renewable energies. As there is no doubt that the challenges will increase within the next few decades, and as the re-investment cycles of the building stock, the production capacities, and infrastructures typically last for several decades, early actions and long-term perspectives by governments and technology producers – become increasingly important.

Objectives

Given these challenges, fast technical change of energy-using and -converting technologies to higher efficiencies, lower losses and less pollution become a central issue. But fast technical change may only be realised if the new technologies have a chance of being economically competitive and politically acceptable. Therefore, the objective of the project is:

- to develop an energy model system that encompasses new technological solutions, their dynamics of cost, their integration in the existing capital stock and the social environment including aspects of market failures, externalities and policy options or entrepreneurial innovations.

- to make the assumptions, the major causal relationships, and the results of future energy use and its impact on economy and society easily understandable to an informed user of the energy model system (by means of a “Navigator”).

Methodology

The model system consists out of a set of sub models, which describe the final energy demand sectors, the energy conversion sector, and a cost integrating model (see figure). The transformation model transfers macroeconomic and demographic drivers of energy demand into set of differentiated drivers needed by the process-oriented sub models (residential dwellings, electrical appliances, service sector, industry sector and transportation). These process-oriented sub models which calculate final energy demand deliver the information for the energy conversion model and the cost model, which calculates energy related investment costs, changed energy and maintenance cost. This information on additional investment costs is used to implement a hard link to the macro model (input-output model) which calculates structural changes implied by energy related investments. If these effects of a policy driven scenario differ significantly from a non-policy driven reference run, the transformation model uses this policy case related information in order to generate a new set of energy drivers for the process-oriented sub models. This hard linkage between a macro-economic model and process-oriented sub models is quite a unique configuration, which facilitates scenario, parameter sensitivity and variant analysis in a consistent way. The methodology draws upon technical, economic, policy and applied computer engineering knowledge in an intensive interdisciplinary manner.

Results

First results of a Reference Scenario closely designed to the Reference Scenario of the ongoing energy demand projection of the Federal Office of Energy will be available in November 2005. The Swiss Input-Output Table was estimated for 2001, as the old one was outdated (year 1995). The completed Navigator will enable the expert to design his own set of boundary conditions or policy measures and analyse the impact on energy demand, emissions, cost and employment.

Publications

Nathani C., Wickart M., Oleschak R., and van Nieuwkoop R., 2005-03-31. Estimation of a Swiss input-output table for 2001 / Technical report (Preliminary and incomplete draft version as of April 1, 2005. CEPE ETH Zürich / UP ETH Zürich / ECOPLAN Bern, Zürich / Bern.

Presentations